WAS @ NYG
Thu 5:15 PM PT
model NYG by 1.8 line NYG -1.5 NYG -1.5 — coin flip, no opinion
FACTFinal: Washington 24, New York Giants 21.
FACTJ.J. McCarthy played through his hip injury: 23 of 36 for 293 yards, one touchdown, one interception. Stefon Diggs caught 6 of 10 targets for 83 yards and a touchdown.
NE @ DET
Sun 6:30 AM PT
model DET by 1.2 line DET -2.5 NE +2.5 — edge 1.3, inside the model's error bar
FACTPlayed in Munich.
FACTNew England ruled out RB TreVeyon Henderson (illness); RB Rhamondre Stevenson (knee), WR A.J. Brown (knee/ankle) and TE Cameron Latu (back) are questionable.
FACTDetroit lists WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (ribs, limited Friday) and RB Sione Vaki (ankle) as questionable.
UNKNOWNWhether St. Brown and Brown both play. Each is his team's top receiver.
READTwo questionable No. 1 receivers and a neutral site. The edge is small enough that Sunday's inactives matter more than the number.
KC @ ATL
Sun 10:00 AM PT
model KC by 3.9 line KC -3 KC -3 — coin flip, no opinion
FACTPatrick Mahomes (elbow) practiced fully all week and has no designation.
FACTKansas City ruled out RB Kenneth Walker III (groin); RB Jaydn Ott (hamstring) is questionable. Walker had 18 carries in Week 9.
FACTAtlanta ruled out WR Zachariah Branch (hamstring).
UNKNOWNWho carries the ball for Kansas City with Walker out.
READLosing an 18-carry back is the kind of thing the model only half sees. No opinion on a 0.9-point gap.
HOU @ CLE
Sun 10:00 AM PT
model HOU by 5.4 line HOU -4.5 HOU -4.5 — coin flip, no opinion
FACTDeshaun Watson starts for Cleveland, as the model assumed.
FACTHouston ruled out WR Marvin Harrison Jr. (hamstring) and TE Brevin Jordan (finger); RB David Montgomery (groin) is questionable. RB Woody Marks (knee) practiced fully Friday and has no designation.
FACTCleveland lists WR Denzel Boston (toe) as questionable.
FACTTank Dell led Houston with 9 targets in Week 9.
READHouston is thin at receiver and running back. Coin flip.
MIN @ GB
Sun 10:00 AM PT
model GB by 3.9 line GB -2.5 GB -2.5 — edge 1.4, inside the model's error bar
FACTKirk Cousins starts for Minnesota after Tuesday's trade from Las Vegas; Kyler Murray (hamstring) is out. The model already assumed Cousins.
FACTMinnesota ruled out WR Jauan Jennings (calf) and TE T.J. Hockenson (wrist); WR Jordan Addison (thumb) is questionable.
FACTGreen Bay ruled out RB Josh Jacobs (finger surgery) and TE Josh Whyle (concussion).
UNKNOWNHow much of the offense Cousins can run after one week of practice.
READBoth teams lost key pieces. Minnesota lost more, but it also upgraded at quarterback from Week 9.
MIA @ IND
Sun 10:00 AM PT
model IND by 4.1 line IND -3.5 IND -3.5 — coin flip, no opinion
FACTThe schedule feed had Malik Willis for Miami. Willis is on injured reserve (groin) and Kyle McCord makes his first NFL start (ESPN). Re-run with McCord, the model moves from Indianapolis by 1.6 to Indianapolis by 4.1, flipping the side from MIA +3.5.
FACTIndianapolis traded WRs Josh Downs and Keenan Allen at the deadline. TE Mo Alie-Cox (groin) is out and TE Will Mallory (hamstring) is questionable.
FACTMiami ruled out WR Jared Wayne (quadriceps); WR Chris Bell (knee) is doubtful.
FACTOllie Gordon II had 16 carries in Week 9; Tyler Warren had 7 targets.
UNKNOWNWhat a rookie making his first start does. The model has no NFL dropbacks to read him on.
READThe swap moved the number 2.5 points, and the line moved 2 points toward Indianapolis since the open. The market already knew.
CAR @ NO
Sun 10:00 AM PT
model CAR by 2.2 line NO -2.5 CAR +2.5 — DOUBLE, edge 4.7, biggest gap on the board
FACTNew Orleans ruled out RB CJ Donaldson (shoulder). RB Travis Etienne Jr. (hamstring) is on injured reserve; ESPN reports the Saints are expected to activate him.
FACTAt SportsbookReview the line opened Carolina -1.5 and has moved 4 points toward the Saints.
FACTChris Olave drew 12 targets in Week 9; Chuba Hubbard had 16 carries.
UNKNOWNWhether Etienne is activated and how much he plays.
READA 4-point move against the model is the market telling me something I cannot see. The model's edge is the biggest on the board; it has also been wrong all season at about the rate a coin is.
BUF @ NYJ
Sun 10:00 AM PT
model BUF by 9.8 line BUF -8.5 BUF -8.5 — edge 1.3, inside the model's error bar
FACTJames Cook III had 31 carries in Week 9. TE Dalton Kincaid (ankle) has no designation.
FACTThe Jets list WRs Garrett Wilson (concussion), Adonai Mitchell (knee) and Omar Cooper Jr. (ankle) as questionable.
FACT68% of SportsbookReview tickets are on Buffalo, but its line moved a point toward the Jets since the open.
UNKNOWNWhether Wilson clears the last step of the concussion protocol.
READReverse line movement against my side. Inside the error bar either way.
JAX @ TEN
Sun 10:00 AM PT
model JAX by 14.2 line JAX -10.5 JAX -10.5 — DOUBLE, edge 3.7
FACTBhayshul Tuten (ankle/foot) has no designation. Tennessee RB Tony Pollard practiced fully Friday and has no designation.
FACTTennessee ruled out WR Carnell Tate (shoulder); RB Tyjae Spears (knee) is questionable.
UNKNOWNTuten's snap share. He played 35% of snaps in his last game, per Fantasy Guru (not checked).
READDouble-digit road favorites are where a margin model is most exposed to garbage time. The edge clears the error bar; that is all it does.
LA @ ARI
Sun 1:05 PM PT
model LA by 8.2 line LA -9.5 ARI +9.5 — edge 1.3, inside the model's error bar
FACTThe schedule feed had Gardner Minshew for Arizona. Minshew is on injured reserve (elbow) and rookie Carson Beck makes his first NFL start (ESPN). Re-run with Beck, the model moves from Rams by 7.1 to Rams by 8.2; the side holds, the edge shrinks from 2.4 to 1.3.
FACTThe Rams are without WRs Puka Nacua (knee) and Davante Adams (hamstring). Nacua drew 19 targets in Week 9. TE Davis Allen (oblique) is questionable.
FACTKyren Williams had 15 carries and Blake Corum 11 in Week 9.
UNKNOWNWho catches the ball for the Rams with their top two receivers out.
READBoth teams are missing their most important passer or target. The line has moved two points toward the Rams anyway.
SEA @ LV
Sun 1:05 PM PT
model SEA by 7.8 line SEA -6.5 SEA -6.5 — edge 1.3, inside the model's error bar
FACTThe schedule feed had Sam Darnold for Seattle. Darnold (quadriceps) is out and Drew Lock starts (ESPN injury report). Re-run with Lock, the model moves from Seattle by 7.5 to Seattle by 7.8.
FACTFernando Mendoza starts for Las Vegas after the Raiders traded Kirk Cousins to Minnesota (ESPN). The model already assumed Mendoza.
FACTWR Dont'e Thornton Jr. (back) is questionable for Las Vegas.
FACTJaxon Smith-Njigba drew 10 targets in Week 9; Zach Charbonnet had 16 carries.
UNKNOWNMendoza's first start against a defense. The model has nothing on him.
READThe line moved three points toward Seattle since it opened. A rookie's first start is the one input nobody has a number for.
SF @ DAL
Sun 1:25 PM PT
model SF by 5.8 line SF -4.5 SF -4.5 — edge 1.3, inside the model's error bar
FACTSan Francisco ruled out WRs Mike Evans (Achilles) and Brandon Aiyuk (personal).
FACTDallas ruled out TE Jake Ferguson (knee), WR Jonathan Mingo (ankle) and RB Tyler Goodson (knee). WR George Pickens (hamstring) has no designation.
FACTCeeDee Lamb drew 16 targets in Week 9; Christian McCaffrey had 18 carries.
READThe highest total on the board at 55.5. My spread edge is small; I have no opinion on the total.
PIT @ CIN
Sun 5:20 PM PT
model CIN by 3.1 line CIN -3.5 PIT +3.5 — coin flip, no opinion
FACTPittsburgh is coming off its bye. WR Michael Pittman Jr. (foot) remains on injured reserve.
FACTCincinnati lists WR Andrei Iosivas (thumb) as doubtful.
READCoin flip.
LAC @ BAL
Mon 5:15 PM PT
model BAL by 5.4 line BAL -4.5 BAL -4.5 — coin flip, no opinion
FACTThe schedule feed had Tyler Huntley for Baltimore. Lamar Jackson (thumb) is on injured reserve, expected out 6 to 10 weeks, and coach Jesse Minter said he expects Jacoby Brissett to start (ESPN injury report). Re-run with Brissett, the model moves from Baltimore by 6.1 to Baltimore by 5.4, and the edge drops under one point.
FACTThe Chargers list WR Ladd McConkey (back, did not practice Friday), RB Keaton Mitchell (hip) and WR Brenen Thompson (hamstring) as questionable.
FACTDerrick Henry had 17 carries in Week 9, when Joe Fagnano started and threw 19 passes.
UNKNOWNMcConkey's back. He was a late scratch last week, per Fantasy Guru (not checked).
READMonday night with a backup quarterback. The swap took this from a lean to a coin flip.